Mats appear eliminated in 27-4A playoff race

Upon further examination of the District 27-4A football standings and remaining schedule, it appears that Seguin may have already been eliminated from playoff contention.  Unless there’s some quirky tie-break scenario that I’m not aware of, I don’t see how they get in.

At 0-4 in district play, The Matadors’ best possible 27-4A record is 3-4 if they win out. 

Here’s how it works out in terms of trying to catch the top five teams in the current standings:

* Seguin has no way of catching Steele or Alamo Heights.  Both squads are 4-0 in district and can finish no worse than 4-3.

*Seguin CAN catch Kerrville-Tivy, which currently has a 3-1 district record.  The problem is that Tivy owns the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams after defeating the Matadors 31-14 earlier this season.

*The two teams tied for fourth with 2-2 district marks are Clemens and New Braunfels-Canyon.  Seguin could still actually SURPASS one of those teams, but only one.  Clemens and Canyon haven’t played each other yet, so the winner of their matchup is guaranteed a district record of now worse than 3-4 (again…that’s Seguin’s best potential finish now).  And both of those teams own the head-to-head tie-break over Seguin because they’ve both beaten the Matadors this season.

*So what it all boils down to is that when the dust clears at the end of the District 27-4A regular season, there will unavoidably be four teams with either better records than Seguin or equal records and the head-to-head tie-break. 

Unless, again, there’s a scenario and tie-break that I haven’t thought of, this all means that Seguin will miss the state football playoffs for the third consecutive season.

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